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Introduction
In the last decade, biofuels attracted considerable interest and expectations, especially as a resource that could potentially mitigate climate change, contribute to energy security and support agricultural producers around the world. Many governments cited these goals as justification for implementing policies promoting the production and use of liquid biofuels based on agricultural commodities [1]. This is especially true in the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Brazil. Since then, there has been a marked change in the perception of biofuels.
Recent analyses have raised serious questions about the full environmental impacts of producing biofuels from an already stressed agricultural resource base [2]. The costs of policies aimed at promoting liquid biofuels (and their possible unintended consequences) are beginning to attract scrutiny [3]. Food prices have risen rapidly, sparking protests in many countries and giving rise to major concerns over the food security of the world’s most vulnerable people.
The controversy about the role of biofuels in the sharp increase in food prices
A "leaked and unofficial" World Bank internal report revealed in the Guardian on 3 July 2008 stirred up a hornet's nest. The report concludes that biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75%, i.e. far more than previously estimated. Although the report was finished in April, it was not published to avoid embarrassing the US government, which had claimed biofuels have pushed up prices by only 3% [4].
An official report was later published by the World Bank in a slightly different (more moderate) form [5]. The latter concludes: "The increase in internationally traded food prices from January 2002 to June 2008 was caused by a confluence of factors, but the most important was the large increase in biofuels production from grains and oilseeds in the U.S. and EU. The combination of higher energy prices and related increases in fertilizer prices and transport costs, and dollar weakness caused food prices to rise by about 35-40 percentage points from January 2002 until June 2008. These factors explain 25-30% of the total price increase, and most of the remaining 70-75% increase in food commodities prices was due to biofuels and the related consequences of low grain stocks, large land use shifts, speculative activity and export bans."
An earlier estimate by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the increased demand for biofuels accounted for 70% of the increase in corn prices and 40% of the increase in soybean prices [6]. According to another study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the increased biofuel demand during the period 2000-2007, compared with previous historical rates of growth, is estimated to have accounted for 30% of the increase in weighted average grain prices (39% of the increase corn prices, 21% of the increase in rice prices and 22% of the rise in wheat prices) [7].
Following the publication of the World Bank report, various studies have evaluated the impact of biofuels on food commodity prices [8]. In particular, European Commission analyses indicated that current EU biofuel production has little impact on current global food prices, as biofuels use less than 1% of EU cereal production. EuropaBIO and eBIO also show that the demand for biofuels has only had a marginal impact on global agricultural commodity price rises [9], thereby supporting the Commission's point of view.
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While there is a consensus on which factors are relevant to the recent sharp rise of food commodity prices, views and analyses differ with regard to their relative importance. The observed price movements are the result of a complex combination of both structural and more temporary factors. Furthermore, the degree by which each factor explains increases in prices varies by commodity and by region [10]. The causes behind price rises for wheat and rice are substantially different from those for maize and soya. The former have been strongly determined by supply-side issues. In the case of the latter, demand growth has played a major role. Supply-side factors appear to have triggered greater price responses than has demand growth.
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Factors having contributed to the sharp increase in food commodity prices
Although most studies agree on the factors which affected food prices (directly or indirectly), there is no consensus on the actual role of biofuels nor on that of any other individual factor. These factors include (in random order):
Short-term/cyclical factors
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weather and crop disease issues in 2006-2007 in some major grain- and oilseed-producing areas
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reduction in stocks due lower than expected harvests
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limited international commodity trade due to the imposition of export restrictions in various countries
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speculation in the commodity markets (incl. surging outside investor influence)
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depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to the Euro and other world currencies
Longer-term/structural factors
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increases in the price of crude oil
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increases in production costs, especially those driven by higher crude oil prices such as fertilizers and diesel
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lower level of investment in agricultural research leading to lower growth in productivity in commodity production
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growing food demand and dietary transition to more animal protein in developing countries resulting in global consumption increasing faster than production
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structural changes in the demand for cereals and oilseeds due to biofuels (e.g. biofuels programs in the US and EU, which provide subsidies and mandates for biofuels)
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diversion of land from food or feed production to production of energy biomass
Facts
In the US, 18% of the 2007 corn crop was processed into bioethanol and feed co-products (source: RFA). This figure is expected to reach about 25% in 2008.
In the EU, cereal consumption for bioethanol in 2007 only accounted for 0.09% of the global cereal production (or 0.7% of the EU cereal production) with over 40% of it being grown on set-aside land (i.e. where food production was forbidden). In addition, one third thereof goes into the feed chain as high protein cattle feed (DDGS) and replaces soy meal (source: eBIO). Finally, the EU uses a variety of feedstock for bioethanol production (such as wheat, rye, barley, maize and sugar beet), contrary to the US (only maize) and Brazil (only sugarcane).
With a share of 36% of the global production of rapeseed oil in 2007, the EU is the largest consumer of rapeseed oil. In the past few years, the EU consumption increased continually especially because of the extra demand of the biodiesel industry. EU biodiesel demand for rapeseed oil however is presently flattening. Although official statistics have not yet been published, it is estimated that in 2008, 62% of EU rapeseed oil consumption were intended for biodiesel. Total rapeseed oil consumption for the food sector in the EU was around 2.9 million tons in 2008, i.e. a return to the level of 2001/2002 (source: Product Board MVO).
Conclusions and perspectives
The development of biofuel programs in developed and developing countries is closely linked to the potential expansion of feedstock production and to the impact that this expansion may have on the production structure of the producing countries and/or on global agricultural markets.
Several studies have attempted to evaluate the future impact of biofuel production on commodity prices. Results however should be interpreted with caution as work on models that combine agricultural and biofuel markets is still at an early stage. The development of biofuels indeed affected and will keep affecting food commodity prices. To what extent food prices are affected however remains an open question. More research is needed and is being carried out to improve the understanding of the effects of increasing biofuel demand on food commodity prices.
In particular, a significant effort shall be given to the understanding and modeling of indirect impacts of biofuels (whether in terms of food prices or land use). Even if biofuels themselves are made using raw materials from land already in arable use, the net increase in demand for crops caused by the promotion of biofuels could lead to a net increase in the cropped area. It is therefore appropriate to introduce accompanying measures to encourage an increased rate of productivity improvement on land already used for crops, the use of degraded land, and the adoption of sustainability requirements. According to the Joint Research Center of the European Commission [11], indirect land-use change could potentially lead to enough greenhouse gas emissions to negate the savings from biofuels production and use. However, the magnitude of these effects is not event roughly known [12].
The development of second- and third-generation biofuels (incl. cellulosic bioethanol, BTL-fuels or yet biofuels produced from algae) shall significantly reduce the pressure on food crops and resources in the future. New-generation biofuels can be produced from alternative non-food raw materials (e.g. residues from agriculture and forestry, dedicated energy crops or algae) and indeed have the potential to reduce land requirements and increase productivity. Second-generation biofuels however are still at the pilot plant stage and are unlikely to be competitive without subsidies before 2015-2020. In the meantime, first-generation biofuels can still contribute to the substitution of fossil fuels and reduction of GHG emissions, provided they are produced in a sustainable way and provided appropriate policy measures are implemented at both national and international levels.
The position of Switzerland
The position of BioFuels Switzerland (the Swiss association for biofuels) in the present "food vs. biofuels" debate is very clear: Food crops must first be used for human food, then animal feed and lastly for biofuel production. In a press release of June 24, 2008, the Swiss Farmers Union expresses its position regarding biofuels: "Even though food production will remain the priority and although the agricultural land available in Switzerland does not lend itself to large-scale cultivation of raw materials for biofuel production, the Swiss Farmers Union requires that it be possible to explore the potential offered by these new opportunities" [13].
As far as the Swiss Confederation is concerned, biofuels produced out of wastes and residues are those preferred and favored by the government, because of their environmental and ecological merit and because they do not compete (at least directly) with food and feed. The Swiss policy regarding biofuels is mostly concerned with the revised Mineral oil taxation law (Limpmin) and the entry into force of the corresponding Order (Oimpmin) on July 1, 2008.
References
World Bank (2008). A note on rising food prices
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Reference
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World Bank (2008)
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Title
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A note on rising food prices
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Summary
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The rapid rise in food prices has been a burden on the poor in developing countries, who spend roughly half of their household incomes on food. This paper examines the factors behind the rapid increase in internationally traded food prices since 2002 and estimates the contribution of various factors such as the increased production of biofuels from food grains and oilseeds, the weak dollar, and the increase in food production costs due to higher energy prices. It concludes that the most important factor was the large increase in biofuels production in the U.S. and the EU. Without these increases, global wheat and maize stocks would not have declined appreciably, oilseed prices would not have tripled, and price increases due to other factors, such as droughts, would have been more moderate. Recent export bans and speculative activities would probably not have occurred because they were largely responses to rising prices. While it is difficult to compare the results of this study with those of other studies due to differences in methodologies, time periods and prices considered, many other studies have also recognized biofuels production as a major driver of food prices. The contribution of biofuels to the rise in food prices raises an important policy issue, since much of the increase was due to EU and U.S. government policies that provided incentives to biofuels production, and biofuels policies which subsidize production need to be reconsidered in light of their impact on food prices.
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FAO (2008). The right to food and the impact of liquid biofuels
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Reference
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Food and Agriculture Organization (2008)
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Title
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The right to food and the impact of liquid biofuels
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Summary
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This UN Food and Agriculture Organization study examines the impact of biofuel production on the human rights to adequate food and to be free from hunger. It was authored by Asbjørn Eide, senior fellow of the Norwegian Center for Human Rights at the University of Oslo, and seeks to contribute to the present discussion on soaring food prices, climate change and biofuels. It explores the extent to which biofuel production has undermined, or is likely in the future to undermine, access to food for vulnerable people, and whether there are any overriding ethical concerns that can justify biofuel production, even if it harms access to food. It also examines if there are ways in which liquid biofuel production can be made compatible with full respect for the right to adequate food for all.
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[879 kB]
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FAO (2008). The state of food and agriculture 2008
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Reference
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Food and Agriculture Organization (2008)
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Title
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The state of food and agriculture 2008
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Summary
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Two years ago, there were high expectations surrounding liquid biofuels as a resource that could potentially mitigate global climate change, contribute to energy security and support agricultural producers around the world. Since then, there has been a marked change in perceptions of biofuels. Recent analysis has raised serious questions regarding the full environmental impacts of producing biofuels from an already stressed agricultural resource base. The costs of policies aimed at promoting liquid biofuels are beginning to attract scrutiny. Food prices have risen rapidly, giving rise to major concerns over the food security of the world’s most vulnerable people. However, biofuels are only one of many factors that have driven the recent rise in commodity prices. Also, biofuels have other implications beyond their effect on commodity prices. This report surveys the current state of the debate on biofuels and explores these implications. It examines the policies being implemented in support of biofuels and the policies that would be needed to address their implications for the environment, food security and the poor.
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[1'328 kB]
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OECD (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017
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Reference
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OECD, FAO (2008)
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Title
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Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017
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Summary
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This is the fourteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the fourth time it has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This edition covers the outlook for commodity markets during the 2008 to 2017 period, and brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both Organisations. The report analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities.
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[1'332 kB]
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DEFRA (2008). The impact of biofuels on commodity prices
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Reference
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UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2008)
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Title
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The impact of biofuels on commodity prices
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Summary
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Global biofuel production has seen a three fold increase over the last 20 years. Price spikes are common in agricultural markets due to a combination of relatively inelastic demand and volatile supply. Historical data (using 1987 as the base year) shows that world wheat prices were at similar level to present levels in 1995 and 1996, less than the 2007 peak in nominal terms but 15% higher in real terms. Sugar prices peaked in 2003 and in early 2008 fell below production costs of all major producers (including Brazil). Other things being equal, biofuel production should put upward pressure on cereal, oilseeds and sugar prices. However, a closer look at recent price developments suggests that there are a number of factors affecting current commodity prices some of which are cyclical and some of which are structural in nature.
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Farm Foundation (2008). What's driving food prices?
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Reference
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Farm Foundation (2008)
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Title
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What's driving food prices?
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Summary
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The temperature of the rhetoric in the food-versus-fuel debate has been rising right along with the prices of corn and oil. Farm Foundation is not about heat or fueling fires. Our mission is to be a catalyst for sound public policy by providing objective information to foster deeper understanding of the complex issues before the food system today. We commissioned this paper to provide a comprehensive, objective assessment of the forces driving food prices. In recent months, much has been written in the academic and popular press about commodity prices, biofuels and food prices—often with varying perspectives and conclusions. Farm Foundation asked Wallace Tyner, Philip Abbot and Christopher Hurt, all of Purdue University, to review the literature and provide a comprehensive assessment of the forces driving food prices today. The three economists reviewed more than two dozen reports and studies, summarizing them in light of their own examination of the facts.
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[2'628 kB]
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Biofuel Matters (2008). The impact of EU biofuel policy on food economics and food security to 2020
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Reference
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Biofuel Matters (2008)
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Title
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The impact of EU biofuel policy on food economics and food security to 2020
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Summary
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The purpose of the study is to discuss potential impacts on food security and prices up to 2020 by utilising EU cereal crops for bioethanol production. It considers the impact of the EU biofuel policies on the economics of food production and food security within Europe; the impact on poverty, which is cited as the main cause of hunger, in the developing world; and how new biofuel technologies may impact on these issues.
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[2'692 kB]
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EuropaBIO (2008). Biofuels factsheet: Biofuels & food
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Reference
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EuropaBIO (2008)
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Title
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Biofuels factsheet: Biofuels & food
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Summary
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Recent price increases in corn and wheat have cascaded in the food chain resulting in a price increase in foods (pasta, bread, milk, meat), which was swiftly attributed to increased biofuels production. While it is true that the price of agricultural raw materials has risen, the alleged impact of biofuels on food price is disproportionate and a number of factors, including bad harvests in Australia and Ukraine in 2007 and an increased demand for meat in developing countries are responsible. The present report addresses the following key issues: Are biofuels causing food prices to rise? Does the higher price of raw materials increase food prices in developed countries? How do the higher prices of raw materials affect food price and availability in developing countries? How does the increased biofuels production following on from the EU and US biofuel targets impact agricultural raw materials for industry? Is biofuel production bad for the livestock industry? How can we meet today’s demands of fuel and food?
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[742 kB]
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eBIO (2008). The truth about food anf fuel
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Reference
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eBIO (2008)
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Title
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The truth about food anf fuel
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Summary
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Biofuels have been blamed for driving up food prices. However, EU produced bioethanol has many advantages with respect to food supply which have been so far overlooked in the public debate. This brochure on food and fuel distinguishes fact from fiction, sheds light on the benefits of EU bioethanol production and points out the positive impact of next generation of biofuels. The 2007-2008 global agricultural commodity price rises are the result of growing world demand combined with a slow down in productivity growth. This led to the change from a surplus to a shortage era and set the stage for commodity price increases. Lower than expected harvests due to adverse weather conditions and crop diseases exacerbated the price impacts. The policy actions of some countries to isolate their domestic markets through export restraints made the situation even worse. Speculation aggravated the situation even further. The demand for biofuels production only has a marginal impact.
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[1'237 kB]
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EU (2008). High prices on agricultural commodity markets: Situation and prospects
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Reference
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European Commission, DG Agriculture (2008)
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Title
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High prices on agricultural commodity markets: Situation and prospects
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Summary
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The paper responds to concerns about causes and prospects of high agricultural commodity prices which started increasing in 2006/2007 and soared in early spring 2008, and thus focuses on agricultural commodities utilised mostly as food. It takes stock of and elaborates existing analysis within the DG AGRI and elsewhere of causes of high prices on agricultural commodity markets, and prospects for their developments. Price volatility has always been present and hikes in the prices occurred before the current one. Reasons for current price pressures are unambiguous and have been reiterated on multiple occasions: a combination of steadily increasing demand and lagging supply or production shortfall, exacerbated by short-term economic and policy factors. These factors are both of structural and cyclical nature. However, the contribution and combination of these factors varies between sectors. For example, high wheat prices are for the large part attributable to supply constrained by weather conditions while demand elements play a more important role in the oilseeds sector and maize. Although price fluctuation is characteristic for products exhibiting seasonality, for some commodities recent hikes exceeded levels explained by accepted market fundamentals. The Commission communication on high prices sets out key areas for action in three categories – efforts to mitigate the short to medium term impact of price rises, initiatives to increase supply in the longer term, and addressing the crisis at international level.
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[411 kB]
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EU (2008). Tackling the challenge of rising food prices: Directions for EU action
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Reference
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European Commission (2008)
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Title
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Tackling the challenge of rising food prices: Directions for EU action
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Summary
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For thirty years, food prices both in Europe and globally have fallen in real terms. This trend has been reversed over the past months by sudden and steep upward movements in world agricultural commodity prices. The price surge affected several commodities at the same time: cereals, meat, and dairy products all recorded two digit or even three digit increases in less than a year. The size and abruptness of the price surge have generated macro-economic imbalances across the world. Developing countries and the most vulnerable populations have been hit disproportionately. Millions of people living on the edge of poverty face hunger and malnutrition. Inside the Union, food price inflation reached 7% in March 2008. For European consumers, the effects of soaring food prices have been worsened by simultaneous increases in energy prices. Households purchasing power has gone down and it is the 16% of Europeans living below the poverty threshold who are most exposed.
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SWISSAID (2008). Agrofuels are a threat to food sovereignty
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Reference
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SWISSAID (2008)
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Title
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Agrofuels are a threat to food sovereignty
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Summary
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The world is currently experiencing a new era of hunger. World Bank president Robert Zoelick warned on 2 April 2008 that in countries where people spend between 50 and 75% of their budget on food there is little margin for survival1. In Indonesia an increase on the price of rice by only 10% will push another 2 million people into poverty. Part of the responsibility also goes to the politically guided boom in the demand for biofuels, which competes with food production. Given the worldwide experiences so far and the reports of our partner organizations form Columbia, India, and Tanzania SWISSAID is against the industrial production of agrofuels for the international markets. It is perfectly clear to SWISSAID: biofuels fuel hunger. SWISSAID proposes to support an ecological form of agriculture for local markets with short routes of transportation and organic methods of production, which consume few fossil resources. SWISSAID demands a clear reversal of trends in energy policy in favor of greatly lower levels of energy consumption and the support of sustainable, renewable energies.
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[473 kB]
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Oxfam (2008). Another inconvenient truth
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Reference
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Oxfam International (2008)
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Title
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Another inconvenient truth
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Summary
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Biofuels currently provide a solution neither to the oil nor to the climate crisis, and are now contributing to a third: the food crisis. In recent years, food prices have nearly doubled, placing poor people, who often spend over half of their income on food, in an untenable situation. The World Bank estimates that the crisis has already pushed over 100 million people into poverty. Oxfam estimates that the crisis has endangered the livelihoods of at least 290 million of the world’s rural and urban poor. The West’s biofuels boom is contributing to deeper global poverty and accelerated climate change, while allowing governments to avoid difficult but urgent decisions about how to reduce spiralling demand for energy in transport. This paper explains how a sustainable development opportunity has instead turned into an unsustainable nightmare, and examines the conditions under which some of the original promise, particularly for poor people, might still be realised.
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[419 kB]
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ActionAid (2008). Food, farmers and fuel: Balancing global grain and energy policies with sustainable land use
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Reference
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ActionAid International (2008)
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Title
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Food, farmers and fuel: Balancing global grain and energy policies with sustainable land use
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Summary
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The public debate on agrofuels changed dramatically over the past year. What started out as an intriguing proposal on an apparently innovative alternative fuel source quickly turned into an important and contentious topic of international discussion. The United States, the European Union and many developing countries set ambitious targets for agrofuel consumption. But these goals were not matched by appropriate caution about the potential impacts of this new demand for agricultural goods on food prices, the environment, or local economies. The sharp rise in food prices around the world brought these issues into the public focus. While estimates of the precise impact of agrofuel production on food prices vary, it is clear that the greater demand for grains resulting from that production — along with rising petroleum costs, increased droughts and flooding resulting from climate change, and the lack of adequate public support for agricultural production — all had major impacts on food prices. ActionAid believes that it is time to stop the headlong rush to agrofuel production, to assess the impacts to date, and to listen to what farmers and consumers are saying about their needs for food and fuel production.
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[1'328 kB]
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USDA (2008). Factors contributing to the recent increase in food commodity prices
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Reference
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U.S. Department of Agriculture (2008)
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Title
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Factors contributing to the recent increase in food commodity prices
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Summary
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World market prices for major food commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have risen sharply to historic highs of more than 60 percent above levels just 2 years ago. Many factors have contributed to the runup in food commodity prices. Some factors reflect trends of slower growth in production and more rapid growth in demand, which have contributed to a tightening of world balances of grains and oilseeds over the last decade. Recent factors that have further tightened world markets include increased global demand for biofuels feedstocks and adverse weather conditions in 2006 and 2007 in some major grain and oilseed producing areas. Other factors that have added to global food commodity price inflation include the declining value of the U.S. dollar, rising energy prices, increasing agricultural costs of production, growing foreign exchange holdings by major food importing countries, and policies adopted recently by some exporting and importing countries to mitigate their own food price inflation.
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[804 kB]
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RFA (2008). The Gallagher Review of the indirect effects of biofuels production
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Reference
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Renewable Fuels Agency (2008)
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Title
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The Gallagher Review of the indirect effects of biofuels production
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Summary
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On 21 February 2008 Secretary of State for Transport Ruth Kelly invited the Renewable Fuels Agency to undertake a Review of the Indirect Effects of Biofuels. This was done in the light of new evidence suggesting that an increasing demand for biofuels might indirectly cause carbon emissions because of land use change, and concerns that demand for biofuels may be driving food insecurity by causing food commodity price increases. The Government has made clear that it would like the RFA to report back as soon as possible in order to be able to have the best opportunity of influencing EU negotiations on future biofuel targets.
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[1'020 kB]
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LEI (2008). Why are current world food prices so high?
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Reference
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LEI Wageningen UR (2008)
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Title
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Why are current world food prices so high?
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Summary
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A complex of factors underlies the current, high food prices. The effects of speculation around food crops should not be overestimated nor should the influence of biofuels on world food prices. In time, food prices will again decline. These are some of the recent and most important conclusions in an economic analysis of the development in world food prices from experts at Wageningen University and Research Centre in the Netherlands. LEI Wageningen UR asked a number of experts to contribute to the national and international discussion by offering analysis from different perspectives. This document is a first memorandum on the analysis of the recent price increases.
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[430 kB]
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JRC (2008). Biofuels in the European Union: Facts and uncertainties
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Reference
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European Commission, Joint Research Centre (2008)
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Title
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Biofuels in the European Union: Facts and uncertainties
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Summary
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Biofuels is currently the subject of a wide ranging societal and political debate. Questions of costs, security of energy supply, green house gas emissions, sustainability of production systems, impact on food production and on biodiversity are some of the many issues which have been associated with a renewed interest in that source of energy. Together with other stakeholders, the Joint Research Centre has been studying aspects relevant to biofuels in different contexts for a number of years. In order to provide an up-to-date analysis of policy issues and thereby contribute to the current debate, it has pulled together these results and other available studies. This has resulted in the present report which is presented as a contribution to an ongoing debate. It has not been adopted by the Commission and does not represent official policy of the Commission. The report presents facts, findings and models regarding biofuels in a broad context. It points out the associated uncertainties. The document identifies scenarios which may evolve in either a predictable or non predictable way in the future but which in turn may considerably influence the debate. Finally, this report has identified open issues.
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[802 kB]
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